In ending the decade there were many turning points, there are new trends and technologies – from income inequality and climate change are realised as a real problem, to electric vehicles, automation, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. In the coming decade, these trends originated may be issued and become a part of our life, changing her; to solve the most pressing problems can be found new approaches; trends can change radically – for example, in the macroeconomics of the decade, slowing inflation may be a change in its acceleration.
“We are entering a new decade with the lowest interest rates for 5000 years, the largest bubble in the asset market in history, a warming planet and deflationary forces in the area of debt, technological change and demographics. At the end of the 2020s the world will be almost 1 billion more people, rapidly aging population, 800 million will be threatened with job loss due to automation, the environment is on the brink of catastrophic changes, write analysts at Bank of America (BofA). – At the same time, the Internet connects 3 billion people, and the knowledge in the world will exceed today.”
New decade will be largely critical, I think the analyst of Bank: reach peaks globalization, income inequality, demographics, consumption of oil, auto, etc. (see).
On the cutting edge of economic development
Example of using the recent past to predict the future can serve as frames from a shot in the 1981 film “blade Runner”. They extrapolat the power of new economic powers, Japan, in 2019, when the action occurs: the climactic scene of the confrontation of the hero Harrison Ford a Replicant takes place in Los Angeles next to the giant advertising Japanese brand TDK, and the hand of Ford is visible elektRonnie Casio watch. But in real-2019 if any country can be regarded as the new economic power is China, which in 1981 was not even on the world economic map.
History is full of unfulfilled predictions “for the coming decade”, warns Jim Reid, global head of the division of fundamental credit strategy and thematic research, Deutsche Bank. In the 1970s, some thought that gold would lose value in an era of unfunded paper (Fiat) money; in the 1980s most thought that quartz watches will completely replace the mechanical; in the 1990s, many publishers had rejected the manuscript of “Harry Potter,” and in the 2000s, fans of the Internet have argued that telecommuting will kill the office, enumerates the RAID. The problem with these predictions is, in his opinion, or that they are so extravagant that they are difficult to see the connection between the present and the future, or extrapolat existing trends.
on the other hand, Arthur C. Clarke wrote, “If we’ve learned anything from the history of inventions and discoveries, is the fact that in the long run, and often in the short term, the most daring prophecies are ridiculously conservative.”
“Vedomosti” published a series of articles with analysis of possible major changes in a number of areas such as: monetary system; the formation of a new model of capitalism; the gradual replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy, including through the development of the electric vehicle; macroeconomics, monetary and fiscal policy. Read the next article of the series in the coming days.
the Change-Megatrends in 2020-ies
Peak globalization: the end of the unlimited movement of goods, capital and labour around the world
Peak inequality: the formation of a moral capitalism; combating tax evasion; large-scale fiscal measures
Pic young: numberin the elderly (65 years and older) for the first time exceeded the number of children under the age of 5 years, the population is aging
Peak oil: world demand for oil for the first time ceased to grow, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and electric vehicles
the Peak of the market: begins to decrease, the total number of cars with diesel engines of internal combustion on the road
Peak consumption: stops conspicuous consumption in developed countries there is a transition from ownership towards a circular economy and the economy of sharing.
Source: Bank of America
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