After an attack in the south, in the Cherson area, the Ukrainian army is now also going on the offensive in the north, in the Kharkov area. Both advances are not the long-awaited major offensive, but only limited actions. Nevertheless, they are of great importance for the further course of the war.
These operations prove that Ukraine can still pull in fresh reserves to at least form a regional focus. This means that Putin’s forces have so far failed to wear down Kiev’s armed forces to the point where they can only react passively. In fact, it is the first time since the beginning of the war that the initiative has been on the battlefield near Kyiv. The spring advances near Kyiv and Kharkov were ultimately a by-product of the Russian retreat. Now the Russians were thrown out of their positions.
Ukraine: Weapons aid from the West
The offensives also show that the armed aid from the West is having an effect. The operations are carried out by armored personnel carriers and transporters of western design, some of the battle tanks used come from the Polish Armed Forces. And apparently the US deliveries of multiple rocket launchers are having an effect. Range-enhanced howitzer ammunition of the “Excalibur” type has been added to the HIMARS. The air defense also seems to work in such a way that it severely impedes Russian fighter jets and helicopters. Militarily, the advance is the rare case of an offensive without a significant air force of its own. It is also positive that Russia has not been able to prevent the front line from being dented, even making two relatively deep dents. And this despite the fact that Moscow had a long time to prepare for the counterattack.
Limited counterattacks
So far this is the positive interpretation. Which, however, must be put into perspective. It is correct that the initiative has passed to Kyiv – the Ukrainian armed forces have thus shown that they can also go ahead. The word “offensive” does not apply to these operations. These are multiple, localized counterattacks that can result in local gains, but do not have the potential to unhinge entire sections of the Russian front. At best, Ukraine can achieve Russian-style successes and nibble chunks out of the enemy front. As a single action, such successes can have little effect; tactical gains only blossom into strategic successes if they are continued steadily.
In two cases, the Ukrainians succeeded in breaking into the Russian front “deep” for the dimensions of this war. The Russians were not able to do that during the entire Donbass offensive. The Russian positions are sparsely manned, the front line has “holes” and the terrain in the south is mostly flat and open and not covered with bunkered settlements. It can also be said critically that the Russians have avoided the risk of deep advances since the spring.
In the south, it is already foreseeable that the Ukrainian armed forces have stuck a “finger” deep into Russian territory, but have been stuck ever since. There is no second “finger” to form a cauldron. Worse still, the Russians were able to essentially hold the shoulders at the point of entry. This puts or brought the advanced troops in a precarious position. Your supply line is compromised and could be cut off entirely. The danger is that Kiev’s forces are sufficient to hack a small hole in the front, but then there aren’t enough fresh troops to really take advantage of the initial success.
Casualties, not villages, matter
More important than the territorial gains are the associated losses. The information provided by both sides cannot be trusted. But there is little doubt that Kiev’s attacking forces in the south have suffered heavy casualties. Russian accounts show photos and videos of shot up Ukrainian device. In a crowd where you couldn’t see it the whole war. The counterattacks in the south are intended to relieve the front in Donbass. The war there has slowed down even more, but the Russian attacks have not come to an end. However, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to take Ukraine’s last major line of defense in Donbass before winter. A danger that existed after the loss of the double city of Lyssychansk – Sievjerodonetsk.
How are the counterattacks to be rated?
If Kyiv succeeds in spreading and holding the deeper points of penetration, it would be a clear victory for Kyiv and a defeat for Putin, regardless of the Ukrainian losses. It would be a signal to our own troops, the population and international supporters. The message would be: “From now on the invaders will be pushed back.” This is especially true if the new advance near Kharkov is more successful and more extensive than the one in the south in the Cherson area.
However, success is not guaranteed, unfortunately the reverse also applies: should the Russians throw the Kiev troops back to their starting positions in the next few weeks, the operation must be described as a failure. The obvious losses are then not offset by a gain. Then valuable reserves were used up for nothing. And as great as the moral gain would be in the event of success, the depression would be just as great if this effort was unsuccessful.