Ruslan Pukhov, adviser to the Russian defense minister, laments the outdated equipment and lack of infantry. If the West supports Kyiv more with modern weapons, the situation could become dramatic.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, spoke about the problems of the Russian armed forces in an interview. Pukhov is very close to the Putin government. He is a member of the council that advises the Secretary of Defense. In the interview he doesn’t mince his words.

A big problem is the modern equipment from the west that Kyiv receives compared to the old Soviet equipment of the Russian armed forces. In practice, Russia does not have 5th generation fighter jets like the F-35. In addition, there is a lack of high-precision weapons and modern sights. Together with the still existing Ukrainian air defenses, this enormously hinders the air force in its attempt to support the ground forces. Puchow: “We don’t have air superiority.” Should larger Western air defense systems arrive in Ukraine, the problem will be exacerbated.

Innovations were delayed

On the ground, the Russians work with outdated T-72s. Puchow also only calls the T-90 a “tuned T-72”. The innovations of the armaments industry have not reached the troops. Pukhov complains that Russia was the first country to develop active protection systems for tanks that can intercept attacking missiles, but that today’s tanks are not equipped with them. “It’s a shame, of course, because experience from military operations in Ukraine has shown that a tank without an active protection system on the battlefield is no longer capable of surviving at all.”

The same picture with the artillery. In the fighting in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015, Russia demonstrated how older artillery with observation drones can become a precise weapon. This innovation was subsequently forgotten. “We missed this revolution and now we have to catch up ‘on the fly’.” While Ukraine has learned to use its old Soviet guns in conjunction with commercial drones. “In the case of an artillery duel, they are often superior to us. “The expert sees the problem that the old Russian artillery is clearly inferior to western systems in terms of range. So far, Western equipment has only been available to the Ukrainian armed forces in “homeopathic doses”. However, if the number of guns increases, in an artillery duel the Ukrainian systems “will be able to destroy our batteries, and the Russian return fire will simply not reach the target”. This is already becoming acute with the HIMARS, which fire high-precision rockets with a range of up to 85 km.

The time of stupid ammunition is over

The course of the war showed the importance of precision weapons. You could launch hundreds or thousands of unguided missiles, Puchow said, but all of that would be offset by two guided missiles hitting the target with pinpoint accuracy. Especially against bunkered positions, which can only be eliminated with a precise hit, unguided projectiles are largely ineffective. “The methods of World War I don’t work, especially if you don’t have infantry superiority over the enemy.” But the Russian side lacks reconnaissance equipment and a large number of precision weapons.

The Russian side is currently benefiting from the fact that deliveries from the West are only coming to Ukraine in small numbers. Puchow blames political considerations above all for this. They shy away from sending a large number of trainers to Ukraine and handing over their own armed forces’ weapons.

The West can, if it wants to

But he warns against underestimating the capabilities of the western defense industry in Russia and taking the complaints about equipment shortages literally. “All over the world, military industrialists like to complain that they are missing something.” Russia must recognize that the Western defense industry works closely together and will support each other if necessary. “The total number of weapons and equipment in service in the armies of the entire NATO bloc is very large and several times larger than ours.” Industrial production can also be ramped up quickly.

The delivery of modern weapons from the West and the numerical superiority of the Ukrainian army due to general mobilization pose enormous risks for Russia. “The situation on the fronts can become dramatic by the end of the summer.”

Quelle:  PRISP; Wartranslated